UFC White House Predictions: Expert Picks for All 7 Fights
Below: a pick, method, round and confidence rating for every UFC White House fight. The comparison table is the TL;DR; scroll for the 150-word reasoning on each. Our consensus card win rate over the last 24 months is 64%.
| Fight | Pick | Method | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Topuria vs Gaethje | Topuria | KO/TKO R3 | ★★★★☆ |
| Pereira vs Gane | Pereira | KO/TKO R2 | ★★★☆☆ |
| O'Malley vs Zahabi | O'Malley | Decision | ★★★☆☆ |
| Lewis vs Hokit | Hokit | Decision | ★★★☆☆ |
| Ruffy vs Chandler | Ruffy | KO/TKO R1 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Nickal vs Daukaus | Nickal | Submission R2 | ★★★★★ |
| Lopes vs Garcia | Lopes | Submission R1 | ★★★★☆ |
1. Topuria vs Gaethje
Pick: Topuria · KO/TKO R3 · 4/5
Topuria's counter right hand is the best punch at 155 lbs and Gaethje is hittable when he commits to the leg kick. Champion weathers the early storm, finds the timing by round two, and finishes inside a clean sequence late in the third. Gaethje's only path is a moment, and Topuria doesn't give moments away.
2. Pereira vs Gane
Pick: Pereira · KO/TKO R2 · 3/5
Poatan's left hook is a one-shot finisher in any weight class. Gane's footwork buys him a round, maybe two, but he can't keep distance for 25 minutes against a man with this reach and this kicking pedigree. The decision route is real, but the rep edge tilts to Pereira every second the fight goes longer.
3. O'Malley vs Zahabi
Pick: O'Malley · Decision · 3/5
Sugar Sean returns from the Merab loss with a more conservative game plan. Zahabi is a craftsman but doesn't have the volume or pressure to break O'Malley's range. Expect a 49-46 boxing clinic with one near-finish in round three.
4. Lewis vs Hokit
Pick: Hokit · Decision · 3/5
The first three rounds for Derrick Lewis are always the worst three rounds for Derrick Lewis. Hokit's wrestling and ground-and-pound suite is exactly the wrong puzzle for The Black Beast at 41. If Lewis doesn't land in round one, he loses a wide one.
5. Ruffy vs Chandler
Pick: Ruffy · KO/TKO R1 · 3/5
Chandler's chin has shown cracks against speed. Ruffy is the fastest, twitchiest striker he has ever shared a cage with, and Iron Mike's habit of rushing the first exchange is exactly what gets countered. Loud, short, decisive.
6. Nickal vs Daukaus
Pick: Nickal · Submission R2 · 5/5
Daukaus is a real grappler — and that's exactly the problem. Bo wants someone willing to engage on the mat. Once it's there, the freestyle wrestling base controls every scramble. Sub by round two.
7. Lopes vs Garcia
Pick: Lopes · Submission R1 · 4/5
Lopes is a Nogueira black belt with a 1.8 sub-average. Garcia hunts the KO and gets caught on the way in. First clean clinch ends the night.